Yanagawa T, Gladen B C
Am J Epidemiol. 1984 Jun;119(6):1015-23. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113806.
Incidence and remission rates are often estimated from studies that employ a diagnostic test to indicate the presence of disease. The apparent rates that result from a simple study design with one test given at two time points will be substantially different from the true rates, even if the error rates of the test are low. Estimation of the true rates requires extra assumptions or extended designs with more tests or more time points. The authors illustrate their points with the use of two examples, the second of which compares the estimates obtained to actual data from a study of onchocerciasis (river blindness) in Guatemala.
发病率和缓解率通常是根据采用诊断测试来表明疾病存在的研究进行估算的。即使测试的错误率很低，在两个时间点进行一次测试的简单研究设计所产生的表观率也将与真实率有很大差异。要估算真实率需要额外的假设或采用更多测试或更多时间点的扩展设计。作者通过两个例子来说明他们的观点，其中第二个例子将获得的估算值与危地马拉一项盘尾丝虫病（河盲症）研究的实际数据进行了比较。
