Kovacs M, Feinberg T L, Crouse-Novak M, Paulauskas S L, Pollock M, Finkelstein R
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1984 Jul;41(7):643-9. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.1984.01790180013001.
As part of a longitudinal nosologic study of major depressive disorder, dysthymic disorder (DD), and adjustment disorder with depressed mood ( ADDM ) in a school-aged cohort, the predictive validity of each diagnosis was examined. Using all available data on the course of the disorders, the criterion was the first subsequent major depressive episode. Major depressive disorder and DD signaled a similarly high risk of a new bout of depressive illness. For the children who recovered from their first episode of major depression and then had their second one (40%), the free interval did not exceed two years; an underlying dysthymia increased the risk of recurrence. Major depression and dysthymia were distinct from ADDM and a set of control disorders; the latter two diagnostic groups were associated with a minimal risk for major depression.
作为一项针对学龄儿童队列中重度抑郁症、恶劣心境障碍（DD）和伴抑郁情绪的适应障碍（ADDM）的纵向疾病分类研究的一部分，对每种诊断的预测效度进行了检验。利用关于这些疾病病程的所有可用数据，标准是随后首次出现的重度抑郁发作。重度抑郁症和恶劣心境障碍预示着新一轮抑郁疾病的风险同样很高。对于那些从首次重度抑郁发作中康复然后又经历第二次发作的儿童（40%），缓解期不超过两年；潜在的恶劣心境增加了复发风险。重度抑郁症和恶劣心境障碍与伴抑郁情绪的适应障碍及一组对照疾病不同；后两个诊断组与重度抑郁症的风险极小相关。
