Wilkens J H, Neuenkirchen H, Sybrecht G W, Oellerich M
Eur J Clin Pharmacol. 1984;26(4):491-8. doi: 10.1007/BF00542147.
A dosage prediction method to estimate theophylline clearance and dose requirement was evaluated in 22 outpatients with partly reversible obstructive airways disease. The steady state theophylline dose required to achieve a target concentration (Css) was predicted using a single serum theophylline determination 8 h after a single oral test dose. In 17 nonsmoking patients a mean absolute deviation of 8.2% (range 0.0-21.7%) between predicted and observed Css was found, and in 5 smoking patients the mean deviation was 34.0% (range 2.2-53.8%). In 17 healthy smokers the single-point method was found to predict theophylline clearance at a sampling time of 8 h with a prediction error of 11.3 (range 0.8-25.3%) compared to the clearance determination using the area under the curve. In addition, a numerical simulation program to assess the influence of absorption, elimination and sampling time on predictive accuracy showed that the method could be successfully applied to a patient population with elimination rate constants between 0.07 1/h and 0.25 1/h, allowing a mean prediction error of 15%.
一种用于估计茶碱清除率和剂量需求的剂量预测方法在22例部分可逆性阻塞性气道疾病门诊患者中进行了评估。在单次口服试验剂量8小时后，通过单次血清茶碱测定来预测达到目标浓度（Css）所需的稳态茶碱剂量。在17例非吸烟患者中，预测的Css与观察到的Css之间的平均绝对偏差为8.2%（范围0.0 - 21.7%），而在5例吸烟患者中，平均偏差为34.0%（范围2.2 - 53.8%）。在17例健康吸烟者中，发现单点法在8小时采样时间预测茶碱清除率时，与使用曲线下面积测定清除率相比，预测误差为11.3（范围0.8 - 25.3%）。此外，一个用于评估吸收、消除和采样时间对预测准确性影响的数值模拟程序表明，该方法可成功应用于消除速率常数在0.07 1/h至0.25 1/h之间的患者群体，平均预测误差为15%。
