McConnochie K M, Roghmann K J
Pediatrics. 1984 Jul;74(1):1-10.
A historical cohort study was performed in order to assess the hypothesis that even mild bronchiolitis in infancy in a predictor of wheezing later in childhood. Subjects who had experienced bronchiolitis and a matched control group were compared in terms of reported wheezing 8 years later. A highly significant difference was found between the bronchiolitis group and the control group in terms of current wheezing (P less than .0001, relative risk 3.24). This difference was maintained after adjusting for many potentially confounding variables including family history of allergy and other allergic manifestations in the child. Results suggested that 13.6% of a normal practice population in the age range 6 to 9 years currently wheeze, but that 44.1% of children who experienced bronchiolitis currently wheeze. Based on the incidence of bronchiolitis (4.27/100 children in their first 2 years of life) and the relative odds for wheezing derived from a logistic regression model including variables that measured passive smoking, genetic tendency to wheeze, and bronchiolitis, calculations of attributable risk suggested that wheezing in 9.4% of the population of children who currently wheeze was attributable to bronchiolitis.
为了评估婴儿期即使是轻度细支气管炎也是儿童后期喘息预测指标这一假设，开展了一项历史性队列研究。对曾患细支气管炎的受试者和匹配的对照组在8年后报告的喘息情况进行了比较。在当前喘息方面，细支气管炎组和对照组之间发现了高度显著差异（P小于0.0001，相对风险3.24）。在对包括儿童过敏家族史和其他过敏表现等许多潜在混杂变量进行调整后，这一差异依然存在。结果表明，6至9岁正常就医人群中目前有喘息症状的比例为13.6%，但曾患细支气管炎的儿童中目前有喘息症状的比例为44.1%。根据细支气管炎的发病率（在生命最初2年中每100名儿童中有4.27例）以及来自逻辑回归模型的喘息相对比值（该模型纳入了衡量被动吸烟、喘息遗传倾向和细支气管炎的变量），归因风险计算表明，目前有喘息症状的儿童人群中9.4%的喘息可归因于细支气管炎。
