儿童哮喘发病预测模型的系统评价
A systematic review of predictive models for asthma development in children.
作者信息
Luo Gang, Nkoy Flory L, Stone Bryan L, Schmick Darell, Johnson Michael D
机构信息
Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Suite 140, 421 Wakara Way, Salt Lake City, UT, 84108, USA.
Department of Pediatrics, University of Utah, 100 N Mario Capecchi Drive, Salt Lake City, UT, 84113, USA.
出版信息
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2015 Nov 28;15:99. doi: 10.1186/s12911-015-0224-9.
BACKGROUND
Asthma is the most common pediatric chronic disease affecting 9.6 % of American children. Delay in asthma diagnosis is prevalent, resulting in suboptimal asthma management. To help avoid delay in asthma diagnosis and advance asthma prevention research, researchers have proposed various models to predict asthma development in children. This paper reviews these models.
METHODS
A systematic review was conducted through searching in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, and OpenGrey up to June 3, 2015. The literature on predictive models for asthma development in children was retrieved, with search results limited to human subjects and children (birth to 18 years). Two independent reviewers screened the literature, performed data extraction, and assessed article quality.
RESULTS
The literature search returned 13,101 references in total. After manual review, 32 of these references were determined to be relevant and are discussed in the paper. We identify several limitations of existing predictive models for asthma development in children, and provide preliminary thoughts on how to address these limitations.
CONCLUSIONS
Existing predictive models for asthma development in children have inadequate accuracy. Efforts to improve these models' performance are needed, but are limited by a lack of a gold standard for asthma development in children.
背景
哮喘是最常见的儿科慢性疾病，影响着9.6%的美国儿童。哮喘诊断延迟很普遍，导致哮喘管理效果欠佳。为了避免哮喘诊断延迟并推进哮喘预防研究，研究人员提出了各种模型来预测儿童哮喘的发展。本文对这些模型进行综述。
方法
截至2015年6月3日，通过检索PubMed、EMBASE、CINAHL、Scopus、Cochrane图书馆、ACM数字图书馆、IEEE Xplore和OpenGrey进行系统综述。检索有关儿童哮喘发展预测模型的文献，检索结果限于人类受试者和儿童（出生至18岁）。两名独立评审员筛选文献、进行数据提取并评估文章质量。
结果
文献检索共返回13101条参考文献。经过人工审核，其中32条参考文献被确定为相关，并在本文中进行讨论。我们指出了现有儿童哮喘发展预测模型的几个局限性，并就如何解决这些局限性提供了初步想法。
结论
现有的儿童哮喘发展预测模型准确性不足。需要努力提高这些模型的性能，但由于缺乏儿童哮喘发展的金标准而受到限制。
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