Neutra R R, Fienberg S E, Greenland S, Friedman E A
N Engl J Med. 1978 Aug 17;299(7):324-6. doi: 10.1056/NEJM197808172990702.
We analyzed data from 15,846 live-born infants to assess the effect of electronic fetal monitoring on neonatal death rates. The crude neonatal death rate was 1.7 times higher in unmonitored infants than in those monitored. Adjusting for inherent risk and changes in mortality rates and monitoring rates during the years of the study lowered the relative risk to 1.4 (95 per cent confidence interval, 0.85 to 2.45). The estimated yield from monitoring decreased as the inherent risk of the baby declined. Thus, in the highest-risk group 109 lives might be saved for every thousand babies monitored. In the lowest risk group (babies at term with no risk factors) the neonatal death rate is around one per thousand. The absolute benefit for this large group could therefore not exceed one life saved for every thousand babies monitored.
我们分析了15846例活产婴儿的数据,以评估电子胎儿监护对新生儿死亡率的影响。未监护婴儿的粗新生儿死亡率比监护婴儿高1.7倍。对研究期间的固有风险、死亡率变化和监护率进行调整后,相对风险降至1.4(95%置信区间为0.85至2.45)。随着婴儿固有风险的降低,监护的估计收益也随之减少。因此,在最高风险组中,每监测1000名婴儿可能挽救109条生命。在最低风险组(足月且无风险因素的婴儿)中,新生儿死亡率约为千分之一。因此,对于这个大群体而言,每监测1000名婴儿所获得的绝对益处不会超过挽救1条生命。