Trobe J D, Kilpatrick K E
Surv Ophthalmol. 1983 Jan-Feb;27(4):271-5. doi: 10.1016/0039-6257(83)90129-7.
Forecasts of ophthalmology manpower depend on assumptions about future supply and requirements. The two factors that influence supply are the number of residents trained and the attrition of ophthalmologists in practice. The factors that influence requirements are the estimated amount of future ophthalmic services the public will demand and the productivity of ophthalmologists. Previous forecasts have produced widely differing results because of an inadequate data base and varying theoretical assumptions. A conservative approach is to use past ophthalmologist to population ratios as a guide, and to tailor the output of ophthalmologists accordingly. A yearly reduction from 1982 to 1990 between 5% and 10% in the number of residency positions will be necessary to bring supply in line with requirements within the next thirty years.
眼科人力预测取决于对未来供应和需求的假设。影响供应的两个因素是接受培训的住院医生数量以及从业眼科医生的流失情况。影响需求的因素是预计公众未来所需的眼科服务量以及眼科医生的工作效率。由于数据库不足和理论假设各异，以往的预测结果差异很大。一种保守的方法是以过去眼科医生与人口的比例为指导，并据此调整眼科医生的产出。为了在未来三十年使供应与需求相符，1982年至1990年期间住院医生岗位数量每年有必要减少5%至10%。
