Worthen D M
Ophthalmology. 1978 Jul;85(7 Pt 1):688-98. doi: 10.1016/s0161-6420(78)35630-x.
Current projections for ophthalmology manpower needs in the year 2000 suggest that the number of new ophthalmologists trained should be frozen at 500 a year. Factors that would cause a need to train more ophthalmologists would be a shorter workweek or workyear, an increased length of time for each patient visit, universal comprehensive health insurance, an earlier age of retirement, and an increased incidence of eye disease. The factor that would most likely reduce the need for new ophthalmologists would be the transfer of primary eye care delivery to nonophthalmologists. Modulation of resident numbers should be based on peer-judged program quality, not on geography or government edict.
当前对2000年眼科人力需求的预测表明，每年新培训的眼科医生数量应冻结在500名。导致需要培训更多眼科医生的因素包括更短的工作周或工作年、每次患者就诊时间的延长、全民综合健康保险、更早的退休年龄以及眼病发病率的上升。最有可能减少对新眼科医生需求的因素是将初级眼保健服务转交给非眼科医生。住院医生数量的调整应基于同行评判的项目质量，而不是地理位置或政府法令。
