Analysis of epidemiological peculiarities of rubella based on a mathematical model (according to observations over 10 years in Moscow).

The main epidemiological values characterizing rubella in Moscow were calculated on the basis of a new mathematical model. Quantitative estimates of the intensity of infection in different age groups of the population were obtained. It has been established that the risk of infection in children is especially high in comparison with adult population. That is why 98% of the population aged 15 are immune. The probability of falling ill with rubella was determined for persons with different antibody levels. The cases of congenital rubella in Moscow are rare due to the low risk of infection in adults and to their immunity acquired in childhood. Consequently, there is no necessity for vaccination against rubella in Moscow at the present time, but it should be recommended to organize constant epidemiological surveillance of congenital rubella.