Prognostic value of angiographic indices of coronary artery disease from the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS).

The Coronary Artery Surgery Study, CASS, enrolled 24,959 patients between August 1975 and June 1979 who were studied angiographically for suspected coronary artery disease. This paper compares the prognostic value for survival without early elective surgery of eight different indices of the extent of coronary artery disease: the number of diseased vessels, two indices using the number of proximal arterial segments diseased, two empirically generated indices from the CASS data, and the published indices of Friesinger, Gensini, and the National Heart and Chest Hospital, London. All had considerable prognostic information. Typically 80% of the prognostic information in one index was also contained in another. Our analysis shows that good prediction from angiographic data results from a combination of left ventricular function and arteriographic extent of disease. Prognosis may reasonably be obtained from three simple indices: the number of vessels diseased, the number of proximal arterial segments diseased, and a left ventricular wall motion score. These three indices account for an estimated 84% of the prognostic information available. 6-yr survival varies between 93 and 16% depending upon the values of these three indices.