Pearce N, Smith A H, Newell K W
N Z Med J. 1982 Mar 10;95(703):139-43.
Considerable debate has been generated about "the coming crisis in medical manpower" with most current analyses predicting a large surplus of doctors in the late 1980s. However, predictions can be complex because of potential fluctuations in the input variables due to political and social factors. Variables affecting active doctor numbers include the numbers of medical students graduating each year, immigration, emigration, the proportions of males and females, age at retirement, and extent of part-time work. A computer simulation is described which enables the relative effects of these variables to be compared. It is found that adjustments in the medical school intake have a relatively small short-term effect compared with the effects of adjustments in several of the other variables, particularly immigration numbers.
关于“即将到来的医疗人力危机”已经引发了相当多的争论，目前大多数分析预测在20世纪80年代后期医生将大量过剩。然而，由于政治和社会因素导致输入变量存在潜在波动，预测可能会很复杂。影响在职医生数量的变量包括每年毕业的医学生数量、移民、移民出境、男性和女性的比例、退休年龄以及兼职工作的程度。本文描述了一种计算机模拟方法，该方法能够比较这些变量的相对影响。研究发现，与其他几个变量（尤其是移民数量）的调整效果相比，医学院招生人数的调整在短期内影响相对较小。
