A model for the long-term planning of physician workforce in Hungary.

A computer programme for the long term (25 years) projection of the physician workforce was developed. The input variables were the admittance rate of the medical schools and the unemployment rate of the active physicians, the output variables were the number of active physicians. The age and sex structure, the retirement age were taken into account. Different scenarios were made to compare the impact of the output of medical faculties and the unemployment rate of doctors on the number of active of the physicians in five years intervals for a twenty-five years period. The input of the young graduates varied between 800-600/year, the unemployment rate between 4.5% and nil. At end of the 25 years projection period the reduction of physicians was between 9.6 and 25.0%. The aim was to find a professionally acceptable, socially tolerable and politically eligible optimal relationship among the three variables.