Forgacs I, Paksy A
Semmelweis University, Faculty of Health Sciences, Institute of Public Health Medicine, Budapest, Hungary.
Cah Sociol Demogr Med. 2001 Jul-Dec;41(3-4):313-25.
A computer programme for the long term (25 years) projection of the physician workforce was developed. The input variables were the admittance rate of the medical schools and the unemployment rate of the active physicians, the output variables were the number of active physicians. The age and sex structure, the retirement age were taken into account. Different scenarios were made to compare the impact of the output of medical faculties and the unemployment rate of doctors on the number of active of the physicians in five years intervals for a twenty-five years period. The input of the young graduates varied between 800-600/year, the unemployment rate between 4.5% and nil. At end of the 25 years projection period the reduction of physicians was between 9.6 and 25.0%. The aim was to find a professionally acceptable, socially tolerable and politically eligible optimal relationship among the three variables.
开发了一个用于医生劳动力长期（25年）预测的计算机程序。输入变量为医学院的录取率和在职医生的失业率，输出变量为在职医生数量。考虑了年龄和性别结构、退休年龄。制定了不同情景，以比较医学院毕业生产出和医生失业率对25年期间每五年间隔的在职医生数量的影响。年轻毕业生的输入量在每年800 - 600人之间，失业率在4.5%至零之间。在25年预测期结束时，医生数量减少了9.6%至25.0%。目的是在这三个变量之间找到一种专业上可接受、社会上可容忍且政治上合适的最佳关系。
