Poulsen S, Amaratunge A, Risager J
Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1982 Dec;10(6):345-57. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0528.1982.tb00407.x.
A number of reports during recent years have suggested that dental caries is decreasing in several populations. In order to substantiate this, recordings of dental caries collected over a 10-year period were analyzed. All children received systematic preventive and restorative care from kindergarten to 9th or 10th grade (age approximately 16 years). Each cohort consisted of 50-60 children, and data on dental caries were available on all children in 1st through 7th grade over a 9-year period. Mean DMFS had decreased with 72% for 1st graders, 65% for 4th graders and 69% for 7th graders. Analyses of the distribution of children according to DMFS showed that in spite of the general decrease in mean DMFS, some children still showed high DMFS-values. The variability according to DMFS was increased during the same period as indicated by the coefficient of variation. Furthermore, children with a given, high DMFS account for a decreasing fraction of all DMF-surfaces in the population as the mean DMFS decreases. It is suggested that the effect on mean DMFS for the entire group of children of a hypothetical, individualized preventive program for high-risk individuals would be limited. In the light of these findings the appropriateness of special preventive programs for "high-risk" individuals is questioned.
近年来的一些报告表明，若干人群中的龋齿发病率正在下降。为了证实这一点，对收集的10年期间的龋齿记录进行了分析。所有儿童从幼儿园到9年级或10年级（年龄约16岁）都接受了系统的预防和修复治疗。每个队列由50 - 60名儿童组成，在9年期间可获得1年级至7年级所有儿童的龋齿数据。一年级学生的平均DMFS下降了72%，四年级学生下降了65%，七年级学生下降了69%。根据DMFS对儿童分布情况的分析表明，尽管平均DMFS总体下降，但仍有一些儿童的DMFS值较高。如变异系数所示，同期DMFS的变异性增加。此外，随着平均DMFS的降低，具有给定高DMFS值的儿童在人群中占所有DMF面的比例也在下降。有人认为，针对高危个体的假设性个体化预防计划对所有儿童平均DMFS的影响将是有限的。鉴于这些发现，针对“高危”个体的特殊预防计划的适当性受到质疑。
