Pretreatment consumption as a predictor of posttreatment consumption in male alcoholics.

Pretreatment levels of alcohol consumption for 72 male alcoholics were found to be related statistically to posttreatment levels of consumption determined approximately 8 months after completion of an inpatient alcoholism treatment program. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used successfully to determine the risk of relapse. Increased risk was associated with excessive drinkers who were relatively early in their alcoholic careers as assessed by years of abusive drinking and lifetime gallons consumed. Logistic regression appears to be a clinically useful procedure that would allow individual treatment programs to set their own criteria of success and increase their treatment effectiveness.