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[该国不同地区伤寒发病率趋势的计算]

[Calculation of trends in typhoid morbidity in different regions of the country].

作者信息

Sergiev V P, Nikonova V A

出版信息

Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 1980 Oct(10):14-7.

PMID:7003992
Abstract

The relationship linearity criterion and its derivatives were used in processing the mass of official statistical data on typhoid morbidity throughout the whole territory of the USSR and in the union republics during the period 1950-1976. In the majority of the union republics (the RSFSR, the Ukrainian, Byelorussian, Georgian, Armenian, Moldavian, Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian SSR) the time course of typhoid morbidity was found to have a linear character and could be adequately described by the exponential function. The calculation of the average rate of annual decrease in typhoid morbidity in the above-mentioned union republics and the extrapolation of the tendencies of morbidity decrease for the last 20 years indicated that the morbidity level in the USSR would decrease by 6.14%, varying from 3.09% to 9.89% in individual union republics. The authors believe that similar rates of decrease in typhoid morbidity in different regions of the country can be attributed to reduced circulation of the causative agent of this infection and to the constant radical improvement of the sanitary and hygienic conditions of the Soviet people.

摘要

线性关系准则及其派生方法被用于处理1950年至1976年苏联全境及各加盟共和国伤寒发病率的官方统计数据。在大多数加盟共和国(俄罗斯苏维埃联邦社会主义共和国、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚、摩尔达维亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚苏维埃社会主义共和国),伤寒发病率的时间变化过程呈线性特征,可用指数函数充分描述。计算上述加盟共和国伤寒发病率的年平均下降率,并对过去20年发病率下降趋势进行外推,结果表明苏联的发病率将下降6.14%,各加盟共和国的降幅从3.09%到9.89%不等。作者认为,该国不同地区伤寒发病率下降速度相似,这可归因于该感染病原体传播的减少以及苏联人民卫生和健康条件的持续根本改善。

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