Sergiev V P, Nikonova V A
Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 1978 Nov(11):113-7.
Statistical materials of recording the number of patients and of the typhoid-paratyphoid infections morbidity level in Russia and the USSR from 1891 to 1976 was studied. A stable tendency to reduction of this morbidity was noted. In analysing the empirical and flattened--by 3 and 5 points--curves of the number of patients and the morbidity level a regularity of declining morbidity rises was revealed. Elevation periodicity persisted, despite the reduction of morbidity level. The mean duration of the whole cycle constituted 12 years. The period of increasing morbidity from minimal to maximal in each cycle constituted 4 years, and of the declination period--8 years. Formalized empirical series of the number of patients and of the morbidity level deviated from 1908 to 1956 not more than by 1 year from the formalized basic curve. Cyclic changes of typhoid-paratyphoid infections morbidity should be taken into consideration in determining the efficacy of prophylatic measures, particularly of mass vaccination.
对1891年至1976年俄罗斯及苏联记录的伤寒-副伤寒感染患者数量及发病率水平的统计资料进行了研究。注意到该发病率呈稳定下降趋势。在分析患者数量及发病率水平的经验曲线和平滑(分别降低3个和5个百分点)曲线时,发现了发病率下降的规律。尽管发病率水平有所降低,但上升周期仍持续存在。整个周期的平均时长为12年。每个周期中发病率从最低升至最高的时长为4年,下降期为8年。1908年至1956年期间,患者数量及发病率水平的形式化经验序列与形式化基本曲线的偏差不超过1年。在确定预防措施,特别是大规模疫苗接种的效果时,应考虑伤寒-副伤寒感染发病率的周期性变化。