Matheson N W
Bull Med Libr Assoc. 1982 Jan;70(1):28-49.
A Delphi study was undertaken to identify the changes in library roles and functions that the directors of academic health sciences libraries believe will occur over the next decade. The methodology is described and the results are summarized. Two scenarios resulted: one, highly desirable; the other, highly probable. They overlap by 64%. Library directors expect moderate evolutionary changes in the next ten years. Users are perceived to be the force maintaining the status quo, while technology is the force advancing change. The adoption of technology is seen as desirable and within the libraries' span of control. Education and service roles of librarians will expand. Library and institutional priorities are seen as obstacles to change.
开展了一项德尔菲研究，以确定学术健康科学图书馆馆长认为未来十年图书馆角色和功能将发生的变化。描述了研究方法并总结了结果。产生了两种情况：一种是非常理想的；另一种是非常可能的。它们的重叠率为64%。图书馆馆长预计未来十年会有适度的渐进式变化。用户被视为维持现状的力量，而技术是推动变革的力量。技术的采用被认为是可取的，且在图书馆的控制范围内。图书馆员的教育和服务角色将扩大。图书馆和机构的优先事项被视为变革的障碍。
