Perspectives on academic health sciences libraries in the 1980s: indicators from a Delphi study.

A Delphi study was undertaken to identify the changes in library roles and functions that the directors of academic health sciences libraries believe will occur over the next decade. The methodology is described and the results are summarized. Two scenarios resulted: one, highly desirable; the other, highly probable. They overlap by 64%. Library directors expect moderate evolutionary changes in the next ten years. Users are perceived to be the force maintaining the status quo, while technology is the force advancing change. The adoption of technology is seen as desirable and within the libraries' span of control. Education and service roles of librarians will expand. Library and institutional priorities are seen as obstacles to change.