Budetti P P, Frey J J, McManus P
J Fam Pract. 1982 Jul;15(1):89-96.
The specialties of family practice and pediatrics, as well as the numbers of nonphysician child health practitioners, are growing much faster than is the population of children. Current figures suggest that the aggregate supply of practitioners is already adequate and will be in excess by 1990. These overall statements, however, mask the fact that physicians are unevenly dispersed and that substantial numbers of children have unmet medical care needs. If present trends in practice content and geographic preference continue, the outlook is for direct competition for patients between the specialties in many locations. Major factors that could influence the character of the competitive responses include differences in practice content amd location, public and private financing for time spent addressing psychosocial and behavioral problems, changes in Medicaid affecting participation by office-based physicians, and subspecialization trends within both specialties.
家庭医学和儿科学专业，以及非医师儿童健康从业者的数量，增长速度比儿童人口增长速度快得多。目前的数据表明，从业者的总体供给已经充足，到1990年将会过剩。然而，这些总体情况掩盖了这样一个事实，即医生分布不均衡，大量儿童的医疗需求未得到满足。如果目前在执业内容和地域偏好方面的趋势持续下去，许多地区的专科之间将出现对患者的直接竞争。可能影响竞争反应特征的主要因素包括执业内容和地点的差异、用于解决心理社会和行为问题的时间的公共和私人融资、影响门诊医生参与的医疗补助计划的变化，以及这两个专业内部的亚专业趋势。
