Steinwachs D M, Levine D M, Elzinga D J, Salkever D S, Parker R D, Weisman C S
N Engl J Med. 1982 Jan 7;306(1):10-4. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198201073060103.
Postgraduate medical education underwent substantial change during the 1970s: medical-school classes grew, the internship year was eliminated, and the numbers of M.D.s entering primary-care specialties increased. The purpose of this study is to develop a planning model of graduate medical education that can project the impact of these and other changes on the numbers and specialty mix of physicians completing training. The model is applied to an analysis of trends in graduate medical education and to the probable consequences of policy recommendations made by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC). The results show that the trend toward increasing percentages of M.D.s entering primary-care specialties from 1970 to 1976 changes to no increase from 1976 to 1980. Thus, the GMENAC policy recommendation to increase primary care further is not likely to occur spontaneously in the near future.
研究生医学教育在20世纪70年代经历了重大变革：医学院班级规模扩大，实习年被取消，进入初级保健专业的医学博士数量增加。本研究的目的是建立一个研究生医学教育规划模型，该模型可以预测这些变化及其他变化对完成培训的医生数量和专业组合的影响。该模型用于分析研究生医学教育的趋势以及研究生医学教育全国咨询委员会（GMENAC）提出的政策建议可能产生的后果。结果表明，1970年至1976年进入初级保健专业的医学博士比例上升的趋势在1976年至1980年转变为不再上升。因此，GMENAC进一步增加初级保健的政策建议近期不太可能自发实现。
