Adams M M, Oakley G P, Marks J S
JAMA. 1982;247(4):493-4.
Projections from the US Bureau of the Census show that as the large "baby boom" cohort ages in the 1980s, the percentage of births to women 35 years or older will increase by 37%, while the percentage of births to teenaged women, the small post-baby-boom cohort, will decrease by 32%. Between 1980 and 1990, for women aged 35 to 44 years, fertility rates are projected to increase modestly, whereas for teenagers aged 15 to 19 years, fertility rates are projected to decrease modestly. Assuming that half of pregnant women aged 35 years or older request prenatal chromosomal diagnosis, an estimated 1.1 million pregnant women aged 35 years or older will request this service during the 1980s, increasing substantially the demand for it. Simultaneously, demand for prenatal care for teenagers will decrease, due to the decrease in births to teenagers.
美国人口普查局的预测显示,随着庞大的“婴儿潮”一代在20世纪80年代步入老年,35岁及以上女性的生育比例将增加37%,而青少年女性(婴儿潮之后的小群体)的生育比例将下降32%。在1980年至1990年期间,预计35至44岁女性的生育率将略有上升,而15至19岁青少年的生育率预计将略有下降。假设35岁及以上的孕妇中有一半要求进行产前染色体诊断,那么在20世纪80年代,估计将有110万35岁及以上的孕妇要求这项服务,从而大幅增加对该服务的需求。与此同时,由于青少年生育率的下降,对青少年产前护理的需求也将减少。