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血型鉴定意见。其在法庭上的重要性。

Blood group opinions. Their importance in court.

作者信息

Hummel K

出版信息

Rev Fr Transfus Immunohematol. 1982 Apr;25(2):167-79. doi: 10.1016/s0338-4535(82)80005-6.

Abstract
  1. --Blood group opinions based on the gene systems and characteristics usual in the FRG are able to exclude about 93% of all non-fathers. With additional systems, including the HLA system, this can be increased to between 98 and 99%. 2. --Owing to repetition, additional systems hardly improve exclusion efficiency. But each and every system is useful for positive biostatistical proof. 3. --As a rule, a computer is necessary for the biostatistical evaluation of blood group findings in cases involving aliens, deficiency, brothers, and incest. The same holds for the evaluation of HLA findings, particularly if one wants to take account of the recombination rate between locus A and B. 4. --The W-value obtained on the basis of Essen-Möller's formula contains all the information necessary for a biostatistical evaluation of triplet cases. In all other cases the method of calculation must also be based on Bayes' Theorem, if necessary with the support of Bayes' Postulate, i.e. with a neutral a priori of 0.5 as a rule [5]. Decisions limited to probably values serve little purpose in court cases.
摘要
  1. --基于德意志联邦共和国常见基因系统和特征得出的血型鉴定意见能够排除约93%的非父系个体。若加入包括HLA系统在内的其他系统,这一比例可提高至98%到99%。2. --由于存在重复情况,增加其他系统几乎无法提高排除效率。但每个系统对于阳性生物统计学证据都是有用的。3. --通常,对于涉及外国人、亲子关系存疑、兄弟关系以及乱伦案件中的血型鉴定结果进行生物统计学评估时需要使用计算机。对于HLA鉴定结果的评估也是如此,尤其是当需要考虑A位点和B位点之间的重组率时。4. --根据埃森-默勒公式得出的W值包含了对三联体病例进行生物统计学评估所需的所有信息。在所有其他情况下,计算方法也必须基于贝叶斯定理,如有必要可借助贝叶斯假设,即通常以0.5的中性先验概率作为前提[5]。在法庭案件中,仅基于概率值做出的决定作用不大。

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