Patzold U, Pocklington P R
Acta Neurol Scand. 1982 Apr;65(4):248-66. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0404.1982.tb03084.x.
The course of multiple sclerosis was monitored by means of a long-term prospective study. This paper reports on first results from this study, covering 102 patients who were monitored for 2 years or more and examined regularly. It is attempted to quantify the extent of the worsening or improvement in the patients' clinical status over the period of observation using regression analysis techniques. The severity of the disease did not correlate to the period of observation in 15% of the cases, these displaying no progression with regard to the clinical signs. In most cases (32%) a description of the disease progression was possible by means of a linear regression line, 21% had a parabolic and 23.5% an increasingly progressive course. For nine patients a second or third degree polynomial regression curve could be used to describe the course of the disease. The individual progression of the disease as estimated using the linear regression coefficient did not correlate with the individual relapse rate (on average 1.1 per year), nor with the age of the patient, the severity of the multiple sclerosis, the duration of the illness or with the previous course of the disease.
通过一项长期前瞻性研究对多发性硬化症的病程进行了监测。本文报告了该研究的初步结果，涵盖了102例被监测2年或更长时间并定期接受检查的患者。试图使用回归分析技术量化观察期内患者临床状态恶化或改善的程度。在15%的病例中，疾病严重程度与观察期无关，这些病例在临床体征方面没有进展。在大多数病例（32%）中，可以通过线性回归线描述疾病进展，21%呈抛物线形，23.5%呈逐渐进展的病程。对于9例患者，可以使用二次或三次多项式回归曲线来描述疾病病程。使用线性回归系数估计的疾病个体进展与个体复发率（平均每年1.1次）、患者年龄、多发性硬化症的严重程度、病程或既往疾病病程均无相关性。
