Hughes K, Foster S O, Tarantola D, Mehta H, Tulloch J L, Joarder A K
Int J Epidemiol. 1980 Dec;9(4):335-40. doi: 10.1093/ije/9.4.335.
A smallpox facial scar survey of 465 892 persons aged 0-19 years was carried out in Bangladesh in 1976, covering approximately 1% of the 0-19 year old population. Of the 4 306 persons found with facial scarring consistent with previous smallpox infection, none had a history of smallpox with onset after the last reported case on October 16, 1975. Histories taken from persons with facial scars allowed smallpox incidence to be estimated for each year from 1972 to 1975. These estimates indicate that completeness of reporting increased steadily from 11.8% in 1972 to 83.0% in 1975, reflecting the increasing effectiveness of surveillance.
1976年在孟加拉国对465892名0至19岁的人进行了天花面部疤痕调查，覆盖了0至19岁人口的约1%。在4306名发现有与先前天花感染相符的面部疤痕的人中，没有人有在1975年10月16日最后一例报告病例之后发病的天花病史。对有面部疤痕的人的病史进行分析，从而得以估算出1972年至1975年每年的天花发病率。这些估算表明，报告的完整性从1972年的11.8%稳步上升至1975年的83.0%，这反映出监测工作的有效性不断提高。
