Harrell W A
Int J Addict. 1980 Nov;15(8):1271-7. doi: 10.3109/10826088009040098.
Presentence reports for 740 offenders were content analyzed. Regression techniques were used to evaluate a number of predictors of sentencing, including the effects of number of prior alcohol-related convictions and whether the offender was intoxicated while committing the offense he was charged with. The two most prominent variables affecting the severity of sentence were the probation officer's assessment of the offender's probable success on probation and the legal seriousness of the offense. While failing to have any significant direct effects on sentencing, our measures of alcohol use had significant indirect effects which were mediated by the probation officer's assessment of success on probation and legal seriousness. An extensive criminal record of prior alcohol-related convictions resulted in a poorer prognosis for success on probation this, in turn, led to more severe sentences for these offenders. Intoxication while committing an offense was related to the commission of minor crimes which, subsequently, yielded more lenient treatment for alcohol-users compared to nonusers. Finally, native offenders were more likely than nonnatives to have many prior alcohol-related convictions and to have been intoxicated while committing an offense.
对740名罪犯的判决前报告进行了内容分析。采用回归技术评估了一些量刑预测因素，包括先前与酒精相关的定罪数量的影响，以及罪犯在实施其被指控的犯罪行为时是否醉酒。影响量刑轻重的两个最突出变量是缓刑官对罪犯缓刑可能成功的评估以及犯罪行为的法律严重程度。虽然我们对酒精使用的衡量指标对量刑没有任何显著的直接影响，但却有显著的间接影响，这些影响是由缓刑官对缓刑成功的评估和法律严重程度所介导的。先前与酒精相关的定罪记录广泛，导致缓刑成功的预后较差，这反过来又导致对这些罪犯的判决更严厉。犯罪时醉酒与轻微犯罪的实施有关，随后，与非饮酒者相比，饮酒者得到了更宽大的处理。最后，本地罪犯比非本地罪犯更有可能有许多先前与酒精相关的定罪记录，并且在犯罪时处于醉酒状态。
