Nortman D L
Stud Fam Plann. 1980 Sep-Oct;11(9-10):286-300.
Sterilization remains irreversible for all practical purposes, but as its procedures become more feasible in developing countries, the question of its potential contribution to fertility decline vis-à-vis other contraceptive methods has increasing significance for family planning program administrators. This question is examined by means of a model that calculates births averted in defined time durations from the acceptance of various contraceptive methods by women of different ages. The findings suggest that without ready access of the population to reversible contraceptive methods that are attractive to birth spacers and tentative birth terminators, the rate of fertility decline is not likely to be satisfactory regardless of the availability, promotion, or popularity of sterilization.
实际上，绝育仍是不可逆转的，但随着其程序在发展中国家变得更可行，相对于其他避孕方法，绝育对生育率下降的潜在贡献问题对计划生育项目管理人员而言愈发重要。通过一个模型来审视这个问题，该模型计算不同年龄段女性采用各种避孕方法后在规定时间段内避免的生育数量。研究结果表明，如果民众无法轻易获得对生育间隔者和有暂时终止生育意愿者有吸引力的可逆避孕方法，那么无论绝育措施是否可得、是否得到推广或普及，生育率下降的速度都不太可能令人满意。
