[The estimated risk of coronary heart disease in four working population groups: the Rome Project of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention (author's transl)].

Within four middle-aged population groups enrolled in the Rome Project of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, a theoretic estimation of coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence in 5 years has been made on the basis of some risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking habit, physical activity at work, body mass index), employing four different solutions of the multiple longistic function (MLF) derived from previous population studies and a simple risk score adopted by the WHO European Collaborative Group to which this study belongs. The use of different MLF solutions provides rather different levels of estimated incidence, but the ranking and the relative risk between population groups are substancially constant and little dependent on the different solutions. Moreover, an acceptable similarity has been found in terms of estimated risk between the pool of the treatment and that of the control population groups (ratio between 0.97 and 1.09). A reasonable hypothesis indicates that in the absence of preventive action the annual incidence of severe CHD (hard criteria) should be around 6 per 1,000. The estimation of the relative risk within single population groups allows to identify strata of people with different risk, which suggests, again in the absence of any preventive action, a concentration of 25-30% of all new cases of disease in a 10% of the population and about 40-45% in a 20% of the same.