Higgens C S, Allan R N
Gut. 1980 Nov;21(11):933-40. doi: 10.1136/gut.21.11.933.
A clinical and statistical analysis has been undertaken in a consecutive series of 227 patients with Crohn's disease involving the distal ileum under long-term review between 1944 and 1978. We have determined the long-term prognosis, cumulative reoperation rates after each resection, mortality rates, and their causes. Actuarial analysis has shown that the reoperation rates are similar after first, second, and third resections. There was no evidence that additional operations increase the risk of yet more resections. Reoperation rates were very little influenced by the age at diagnosis of the underlying Crohn's disease. A short interval from diagnosis of Crohn's disease to the first resection tended to increase the reoperation rate in the short term but there was no overall long-term effect. There was a two-fold increase in mortality risk when compared with the general population. Half the deaths were unrelated to the underlying Crohn's disease and, in this group, the incidence and causes were similar to those expected in the general population matched for age, sex, and years at risk. Of the disease related deaths many occurred in the early years of experience. Only four patients in the series have died of Crohn's disease in the last 10 years. One hundred and ninety-three patients are still alive after a mean interval of 16.1 years from the diagnosis of Crohn's disease. Full information is available on 185, of whom 161 are well and symptom free. Seven have minor problems, while 17 are unwell (nine with radiological evidence of recurrent disease).
对1944年至1978年期间接受长期随访的227例累及回肠末端的克罗恩病患者进行了临床和统计学分析。我们确定了长期预后、每次切除后的累积再手术率、死亡率及其原因。精算分析表明,首次、第二次和第三次切除后的再手术率相似。没有证据表明额外的手术会增加再次切除的风险。再手术率受潜在克罗恩病诊断时年龄的影响很小。从克罗恩病诊断到首次切除的间隔时间短往往会在短期内增加再手术率,但没有总体长期影响。与普通人群相比,死亡风险增加了两倍。一半的死亡与潜在的克罗恩病无关,在这组人群中,发病率和病因与按年龄、性别和风险年限匹配的普通人群预期的相似。在与疾病相关的死亡中,许多发生在经验积累的早期。在过去10年中,该系列中只有4例患者死于克罗恩病。从克罗恩病诊断开始平均间隔16.1年后,193例患者仍然存活。185例患者有完整信息,其中161例情况良好且无症状。7例有轻微问题,17例身体不适(9例有疾病复发的影像学证据)。