Olsen R J
Demography. 1980 Nov;17(4):429-43.
This article rigorously derives the properties of the regression of births on child deaths. It is shown how the raw regression coefficient may be corrected for the effects of fertility on mortality so that the rate at which dead children are replaced may be estimated. The method is applied to data from Colombia. It is found that the mortality rate differs across individuals and is correlated with fertility. Such conditions vitiate the use of birth intervals and parity progresssion ratios yet can be dealth with using the new method. On average each death produces 0.2 new births as a direct result of the death. Fertility hoarding may raise the total fertility response to roughly one-half birth per death.
本文严格推导了出生对儿童死亡回归的性质。展示了如何针对生育对死亡率的影响对原始回归系数进行校正，以便能够估计死亡儿童被替代的速率。该方法应用于来自哥伦比亚的数据。研究发现，死亡率因个体而异，且与生育相关。这些情况削弱了出生间隔和胎次递进比的用途，但可以用新方法来处理。平均而言，每次死亡直接导致产生0.2个新出生人口。生育囤积可能会使总生育反应提高到约每死亡一人产生半个出生人口。
