Heslop B F, Leatham M C
Department of Pathology, University of Otago Medical School, Dunedin.
N Z Med J. 1995 Oct 13;108(1009):407-10.
To determine the extent to which New Zealand's future specialists are likely to be graduates of this country's medical schools.
Forward projections were made on the basis of information from: (1) Medical Council annual reports recording additions to the Register of Specialists between July 1 1990 and June 30 1994, (2) Medical Council annual questionnaire data relating to New Zealand doctors qualifying in 1971-85, (3) Medical Directories of Australia, Canada, UK and USA, (4) selected Australasian specialist colleges on the number of registered trainees in New Zealand, and (5) Medical School data on New Zealand graduating classes since 1971.
Forty percent of the new specialists registered in New Zealand between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 1994 were graduates of overseas medical schools. Future projections suggest that this percentage is likely to increase. Major determinants of New Zealand specialist numbers are (1) the proportion of specialist New Zealand graduates (38%) not working in this country, and (2) the sex ratio of future graduating classes--proportionately fewer women (38%) than men (56%) specialise.
Graduates of this country's medical schools are likely to supply approximately half of New Zealand's future specialists.
确定新西兰未来的专科医生有多大可能是该国医学院校的毕业生。
基于以下信息进行前瞻性预测：（1）医学委员会年度报告，记录1990年7月1日至1994年6月30日期间专科医生注册登记的新增人员；（2）医学委员会年度调查问卷数据，涉及1971 - 1985年取得资格的新西兰医生；（3）澳大利亚、加拿大、英国和美国的医学名录；（4）部分澳大利亚和新西兰的专科医学院关于新西兰注册实习生数量的信息；（5）自1971年以来新西兰医学院校毕业班的数据。
1990年7月1日至1994年6月30日期间在新西兰注册的新专科医生中，40%是海外医学院校的毕业生。未来预测表明这一比例可能会上升。新西兰专科医生数量的主要决定因素是：（1）新西兰专科毕业生中不在该国工作的比例（38%）；（2）未来毕业班的性别比例——选择成为专科医生的女性比例（38%）比男性比例（56%）少。
该国医学院校的毕业生可能为新西兰未来的专科医生提供约一半的数量。
