Blikslager A T, Roberts M C
Department of Food Animal and Equine Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh 27606, USA.
J Am Vet Med Assoc. 1995 Dec 1;207(11):1444-7.
To assess the ability of clinicians to predict the site and type of lesion as well as outcome in horses with colic.
Prospective case study.
139 horses admitted for evaluation of signs of colic.
Six interns and residents examined horses with colic and predicted the segment of intestine that was affected, the type of lesion, and whether the horse would survive to discharge. Accuracy of prediction of site and type of lesion and survival prediction was compared between the first and second halves of the year, using chi 2 analysis and 95% confidence intervals on sensitivity and specificity. chi 2 Analysis was used to assess accuracy between predicted site and type of lesion and intraoperative or necropsy findings and to assess accuracy between predicted survival and actual outcome.
Significant association existed between predicted segment of affected intestine or type of lesion and intraoperative findings (P < 0.05). There was a significant association between predicted survival and outcome (P < 0.001). Accuracy of survival prediction improved significantly (P = 0.002) during the year.
Clinicians can accurately predict horses with colic that will survive surgery on the basis of clinical impressions. The ability to predict those horses that will survive improves with training.
评估临床医生预测患急腹症马匹的病变部位、类型及预后的能力。
前瞻性病例研究。
139匹因急腹症体征入院评估的马匹。
6名实习医生和住院医生检查患急腹症的马匹，并预测受影响的肠段、病变类型以及马匹能否存活至出院。采用卡方分析以及敏感性和特异性的95%置信区间，比较上半年和下半年在病变部位和类型预测以及生存预测方面的准确性。卡方分析用于评估预测的病变部位和类型与术中或尸检结果之间的准确性，以及预测生存情况与实际预后之间的准确性。
预测的受影响肠段或病变类型与术中发现之间存在显著关联（P < 0.05）。预测生存情况与预后之间存在显著关联（P < 0.001）。年内生存预测的准确性显著提高（P = 0.002）。
临床医生可根据临床印象准确预测能在手术后存活的患急腹症马匹。预测马匹生存情况的能力会随着培训而提高。
