Orsini J A, Elser A H, Galligan D T, Donawick W J, Kronfeld D S
Section of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, School of Veterinary Medicine, Kennett Square 19348.
Am J Vet Res. 1988 Nov;49(11):1969-71.
Selected physical and laboratory findings in 29 horses with acute abdominal crisis were evaluated retrospectively with a logistic regression equation to predict survival or death. Of 17 variables examined, 2 were found to have good predictive correlation. Serum lactate and packed cell volume had a combined predictive value of 94%. Packed cell volume mean values of 43 and 50%, respectively, differentiated survival from death. Serum lactate values of 28.18 mg/dl and 51.28 mg/dl differentiated survival and death. Analysis of data from a previous study of 36 horses with the logistic regression equation predicted survival rate of 96% accuracy, further substantiating the statistical model.
对29匹患有急性腹痛危象的马匹的选定体格检查和实验室检查结果进行回顾性评估，使用逻辑回归方程预测存活或死亡情况。在所检查的17个变量中，发现有2个具有良好的预测相关性。血清乳酸和红细胞压积的联合预测价值为94%。红细胞压积平均值分别为43%和50%时，可区分存活与死亡情况。血清乳酸值为28.18mg/dl和51.28mg/dl时，可区分存活与死亡情况。使用逻辑回归方程对先前一项针对36匹马的研究数据进行分析，预测准确率为96%，进一步证实了该统计模型。
