Morrison H I, MacNeill I B, Miller D, Levy I, Xie L, Mao Y
Cancer Division, Bureau of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, Ottawa, ON.
Can J Public Health. 1995 Jul-Aug;86(4):274-8.
To model and forecast prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Canada to the year 2016.
Bivariate multiplicative models of prostate cancer incidence and mortality for Canadian men aged 45 years or older, linear in time and Weibull in age, were fitted using weighted non-linear regression.
The number of incident cases of prostate cancer is forecast to increase from 11,355, observed in 1990, to 26,900 by the year 2010 and to 35,200 by the year 2016. The number of deaths are estimated to climb from 3,424, observed in 1991, to an estimated 6,300 by the year 2010, and to 7,800 by the year 2016.
The dramatic increase in prostate cancer rates with age, coupled with the expected large increase in the elderly Canadian male population and steadily increasing prostate cancer incidence rates will produce very large increases in the number of men who will have prostate cancer over the next 20 years. This has important implications for health care delivery in the future.
对加拿大到2016年的前列腺癌发病率和死亡率进行建模和预测。
采用加权非线性回归，对45岁及以上加拿大男性前列腺癌发病率和死亡率的双变量乘法模型进行拟合，该模型在时间上呈线性，在年龄上呈威布尔分布。
预计前列腺癌新发病例数将从1990年的11355例增加到2010年的26900例，并在2016年增加到35200例。死亡人数估计将从1991年的3424例攀升至2010年的约6300例，并在2016年达到7800例。
前列腺癌发病率随年龄急剧上升，再加上加拿大老年男性人口预计大幅增加以及前列腺癌发病率稳步上升，未来20年患前列腺癌的男性人数将大幅增加。这对未来的医疗保健服务具有重要意义。
