Shelef M
Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, MI 48121.
Sci Total Environ. 1994 May 23;146-147:93-101. doi: 10.1016/0048-9697(94)90224-0.
In 1970, before the implementation of strict controls on emissions in motor vehicle exhaust gas (MVEG), the annual USA incidence of fatal accidents by carbon monoxide in the MVEG was approximately 800 and that of suicides approximately 2000 (somewhat less than 10% of total suicides). In 1987, there were approximately 400 fatal accidents and approximately 2700 suicides by MVEG. Accounting for the growth in population and vehicle registration, the yearly lives saved in accidents by MVEG were approximately 1200 in 1987 and avoided suicides approximately 1400. The decrease in accidents continues unabated while the decrease in expected suicides by MVEG reached a plateau in 1981-1983. The reasons for this disparity are discussed. Juxtaposition of these results with the projected cancer risk avoidance of less than 500 annually in 2005 (as compared with 1986) plainly shows that, in terms of mortality, the unanticipated benefits of emission control far overshadow the intended benefits. With the spread of MVEG control these benefits will accrue worldwide.
1970年，在对机动车尾气排放实施严格控制（MVEG）之前，美国每年因机动车尾气一氧化碳导致的致命事故发生率约为800起，自杀发生率约为2000起（略低于自杀总数的10%）。1987年，机动车尾气导致的致命事故约有400起，自杀约有2700起。考虑到人口和车辆登记数量的增长，1987年机动车尾气在事故中每年挽救的生命约为1200人，避免的自杀约为1400人。事故发生率的下降持续不减，而机动车尾气预计自杀率的下降在1981 - 1983年达到了平稳状态。文中讨论了这种差异的原因。将这些结果与预计2005年（与1986年相比）每年避免的癌症风险低于500例进行对比，清楚地表明，就死亡率而言，排放控制带来的意外益处远远超过了预期益处。随着机动车尾气控制措施的推广，这些益处将在全球范围内显现。
