McCredie M
Cancer Epidemiology Research Unit, New South Wales Cancer Council, Kings Cross, New South Wales.
Cancer Surv. 1994;19-20:343-68.
The major factor contributing to the increase in incidence of both renal and urothelial cancers has been improved detection rates. To a considerable extent, this accounts for the difference between the trends in incidence and mortality since, on the whole, the efficacy of treatment has improved only slowly. In the case of renal parenchymal cancer, the true burden of disease is rising almost everywhere, probably reflecting changes in standard of living, perhaps chiefly diet, although there will be some contribution from smoking. Where the increase in bladder cancer is not artefactual, it can be attributed in large part to smoking and perhaps to increasing industrial exposure in some localities. Trends in incidence and, to a greater degree, mortality for urothelial cancer are likely to improve substantially with implementation of policies of prevention (reduction in smoking, improvements in industrial hygiene), earlier detection (eg with monoclonal antibodies) and treatment (immunotherapy). No such optimism can be held with respect to renal parenchymal cancer, which is set to become one of the major cancers of affluent societies unless its aetiology becomes known and can be addressed.
导致肾癌和尿路上皮癌发病率上升的主要因素是检测率的提高。在很大程度上,这解释了发病率和死亡率趋势之间的差异,因为总体而言,治疗效果仅缓慢改善。就肾实质癌而言,几乎在所有地方,疾病的实际负担都在上升,这可能反映了生活水平的变化,也许主要是饮食方面的变化,尽管吸烟也有一定影响。在膀胱癌发病率增加并非人为因素的情况下,很大程度上可归因于吸烟,或许还与某些地区工业接触增加有关。随着预防政策(减少吸烟、改善工业卫生)、早期检测(如使用单克隆抗体)和治疗(免疫疗法)的实施,尿路上皮癌的发病率趋势以及在更大程度上死亡率趋势可能会大幅改善。对于肾实质癌则无法如此乐观,除非其病因被知晓并得以解决,否则它将成为富裕社会的主要癌症之一。