The importance of local control in the conservative treatment of breast cancer.

The purpose of this study was to examine the meaning of local control, especially on survival, in breast cancer patients treated by lumpectomy with or without radiotherapy. We analyzed the survival results of four major published randomized trials that compare conservation surgery with or without radiation using three different statistical approaches: p-values, confidence intervals, and Bayesian techniques. All four trials report statistically significant increased local control and improved survival for the irradiated patients. Survival based on p-values and confidence intervals shows statistical significance for long-term follow-up of the NSABP-B06 trial, but not for the other trials, probably because of small sample sizes and short follow-up. At 10 years, the overall survival rates for the NSABP-B06 were 65% and 71% for lumpectomy alone or with radiation respectively. Interpreted in a Bayesian framework, the expected advantage in 10-year survival was 6% (the mean of NSABP-B06 10-year survival) with an 83% probability that the 10-year survival difference may lie between 2% and 10%. An 85% probability that 3% of patients will survive at 10 years because of irradiation translates into a 30% reduction in annual odds of death several years after treatment in stage I good prognosis patients and 15% in stage I poor prognosis patients. Analysis of the randomized trials comparing lumpectomy with or without radiation indicate a clear improvement in survival for the irradiated patients associated with increased local control. Combination of improved survival with the reduced psychological and economic costs associated with local recurrence argues well for the inclusion of radiation for many breast cancer patients.