Pharoah P D, Sanderson S P
Cambridge and Huntingdon Health Commission, Fulbourn Hospital.
J Public Health Med. 1995 Jun;17(2):150-6. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.pubmed.a043085.
Since the health promotion programme for general practice was introduced in 1993, there has been some controversy about the potential effectiveness and likely cost-effectiveness of health promotion in general practice. The aim of this study was to generate a model to estimate the potential impact of the new general practice health promotion programme on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, in terms of absolute reductions in mortality, in Cambridge Health Authority, a district with relatively low mortality rates for these two diseases.
A model to estimate the impact of the programme was derived from local data for risk factor prevalence in men and women aged 45-74; local death rates for CHD and stroke; and published data on the effectiveness of general practice health promotion.
The expected number of deaths in the ten years following screening was estimated at 3203 deaths for CHD and 1075 for stroke. The model estimates a 12% reduction in CHD deaths and 17% fewer stroke deaths following the implementation of the programme.
Even in areas where risk factor prevalence is low and death rates are low, the health promotion programme has the potential to have a moderate impact on CHD and stroke mortality. The cost-effectiveness of the programme, however, has yet to be established.
自1993年引入针对全科医疗的健康促进项目以来，关于全科医疗中健康促进的潜在效果和可能的成本效益一直存在一些争议。本研究的目的是建立一个模型，以估计剑桥卫生局（这两种疾病死亡率相对较低的一个地区）新的全科医疗健康促进项目对冠心病（CHD）和中风的潜在影响，以绝对降低死亡率来衡量。
一个估计该项目影响的模型源自当地45 - 74岁男性和女性的风险因素患病率数据、当地冠心病和中风的死亡率以及已发表的关于全科医疗健康促进效果的数据。
筛查后十年内冠心病的预期死亡人数估计为3203人，中风为1075人。该模型估计该项目实施后冠心病死亡人数减少12%，中风死亡人数减少17%。
即使在风险因素患病率低和死亡率低的地区，健康促进项目也有可能对冠心病和中风死亡率产生适度影响。然而，该项目的成本效益尚未确定。
