An inductive algorithm approach to knowledge acquisition for expert system development. A pilot study.

Knowledge acquisition, which consists of knowledge elicitation and knowledge representation, often is considered the weakest link in the design of expert systems. Systems frequently are built on the knowledge of one expert and require extensive use of knowledge engineering techniques to elicit this knowledge from the expert. Inductive algorithms are a potential alternative method of knowledge acquisition for expert system development. The aim of this pilot study was to examine the feasibility of applying machine learning techniques, specifically, inductive algorithms, to an existing research database as a method for knowledge elicitation and knowledge representation for expert system development. Two inductive algorithms (C4 and Classification and Regression Trees [CART]) that generate decision trees were selected for the analysis using a data set of 201 patients hospitalized for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. Neither C4 nor CART produced trees with an accuracy that was significantly better than the baseline accuracy (71.3%) for prediction of outcome in the data set. The mean accuracy of the C4 decision trees was below baseline and the mean accuracy of CART decision trees was 74.6%. The experts found both algorithms comprehensible, but not adequate, and identified important missing predictor variables. The study findings suggest that additional research is needed to examine the appropriate use of inductive algorithms in the transformation of nursing data and information into nursing knowledge.