Cohen J E
Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University, New York, NY 10021, USA.
Science. 1995 Jul 21;269(5222):341-6. doi: 10.1126/science.7618100.
Earth's capacity to support people is determined both by natural constraints and by human choices concerning economics, environment, culture (including values and politics), and demography. Human carrying capacity is therefore dynamic and uncertain. Human choice is not captured by ecological notions of carrying capacity that are appropriate for nonhuman populations. Simple mathematical models of the relation between human population growth and human carrying capacity can account for faster-than-exponential population growth followed by a slowing population growth rate, as observed in recent human history.
地球养活人类的能力既取决于自然限制,也取决于人类在经济、环境、文化(包括价值观和政治)以及人口统计学方面所做的选择。因此,人类承载能力是动态且不确定的。生态承载能力概念适用于非人类种群,却无法涵盖人类的选择。正如近代人类历史所观察到的,关于人口增长与人类承载能力之间关系的简单数学模型可以解释人口增长快于指数增长随后增长率放缓的现象。