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逻辑斯蒂型方程与全球人口增长的普遍模式。

Verhulst-type equation and the universal pattern for global population growth.

作者信息

Sojecka Agata Angelika, Drozd-Rzoska Aleksandra

机构信息

Department of Marketing, University of Economics, Katowice, Poland.

Institute of High Pressure Physics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 May 19;20(5):e0323165. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0323165. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

The global population [Formula: see text] (growth from 10,000 BCE to 2023) is discussed in frames of the Verhulst-type scaling, recalling the sustainable development concept. The analysis focuses on the per capita global population growth rate, for which the analytic counterpart is considered:[Formula: see text]. The focused insight reveals two near- linear domains for [Formula: see text] changes: from ~ 700 CE till ~1968 and from ~1968 till 2023. It can be considered a reference pattern for long-term global population changes. For models recalling the Verhulst-type scaling, such analysis indicates that a single pair of growth rate and system resource coefficients [Formula: see text] should describe the rise in the global population. However, the Verhulst relation with such effective parameters does not describe [Formula: see text] changes, which raises the question of whether it is adequate to describe global population changes. Notably is the new way of data preparation, based on their collections from various sources and numerical filtering to obtain a 'smooth' optimal set. The changes of [Formula: see text] were analyzed via the 'reversed protocol' analysis, in comparison to the standard pattern, namely: (i) first, the linearized, distortions-sensitive transformation of [Formula: see text] data is carried out; it indicates domains where the validated application of a given scaling equation is possible and yields optimal values of relevant parameters, (ii) the final fitting via the selected scaling equation is carried out for identified domains, and using obtained optimal values of parameters. The analysis reveals links between [Formula: see text] local 'disturbations' and some historical and prehistorical reference events, showing their global scale impacts.

摘要

在回顾可持续发展概念的逻辑斯蒂型缩放框架下,讨论了全球人口(公元前10000年至2023年的增长情况)。分析聚焦于全球人均人口增长率,并考虑了其对应的解析表达式:[公式:见原文]。重点洞察揭示了[公式:见原文]变化的两个近似线性区间:从公元700年左右到1968年左右,以及从1968年左右到2023年。这可被视为全球人口长期变化的参考模式。对于采用逻辑斯蒂型缩放的模型,此类分析表明,单一的增长率和系统资源系数对[公式:见原文]应能描述全球人口的增长。然而,具有此类有效参数的逻辑斯蒂关系并不能描述[公式:见原文]的变化,这就引发了其是否足以描述全球人口变化的问题。值得注意的是一种新的数据准备方式,即基于从各种来源收集数据并进行数值滤波以获得“平滑”的最优数据集。通过“反向协议”分析对[公式:见原文]的变化进行了分析,并与标准模式进行比较,具体如下:(i) 首先,对[公式:见原文]数据进行线性化的、对失真敏感的变换;这表明了给定缩放方程有效应用的区间,并得出相关参数的最优值,(ii) 对已识别的区间使用选定的缩放方程进行最终拟合,并使用获得的参数最优值。分析揭示了[公式:见原文]局部“扰动”与一些历史和史前参考事件之间的联系,展示了它们的全球规模影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0c27/12088597/c7f7c30f30e9/pone.0323165.g001.jpg

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