Lipsitch M, Nowak M A, Ebert D, May R M
Department ofZoology, University of Oxford, U.K.
Proc Biol Sci. 1995 Jun 22;260(1359):321-7. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1995.0099.
We analyse a model of the transmission dynamics of a parasite transmitted both vertically and horizontally. The basic reproductive ratio (R0) of the parasite is shown to be a sum of horizontal and vertical components. We derive expressions for the equilibrium prevalence of infection for a mixture of horizontal and vertical transmission; prevalence can reach 100% if transmission is sufficiently high. At the endemic equilibrium, if prevalence is high, most transmission will in general be vertical, but horizontal transmission rates must be high to reach and stably maintain such an equilibrium. Surprisingly, for such parasites the highest equilibrium rates of vertical transmission are observed when horizontal transmission is very effective. We discuss the implications for assessing the importance of horizontal v. vertical transmission from field data, and we suggest some implications for the evolution of virulence.
我们分析了一种既可垂直传播又可水平传播的寄生虫的传播动力学模型。结果表明,该寄生虫的基本繁殖率(R0)是水平和垂直传播组分的总和。我们推导了水平和垂直传播混合情况下感染平衡患病率的表达式;如果传播率足够高,患病率可达到100%。在地方病平衡状态下,如果患病率很高,一般来说大多数传播将是垂直传播,但水平传播率必须很高才能达到并稳定维持这种平衡。令人惊讶的是,对于这类寄生虫,当水平传播非常有效时,会观察到最高的垂直传播平衡率。我们讨论了从实地数据评估水平传播与垂直传播重要性的意义,并提出了对毒力进化的一些启示。