Altman D G, De Stavola B L, Love S B, Stepniewska K A
Medical Statistics Laboratory, Imperial Cancer Research Fund, London, UK.
Br J Cancer. 1995 Aug;72(2):511-8. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1995.364.
Survival analysis has found widespread applications in medicine in the last 10-15 years. However, there has been no published review of the use and presentation of survival analyses. We have carried out a systematic review of the research papers published between October and December 1991 in five clinical oncology journals. A total of 132 papers were reviewed. We looked at several aspects of study design, data handling, analysis and presentation of the results. We found that almost half of the papers did not give any summary of length of follow-up; that in 62% of papers at least one end point was not clearly defined; and that both logrank and multivariate analyses were frequently reported at most only as P-values [63/84 (75%) and 22/47 (47%) respectively]. Furthermore, although many studies were small, uncertainty of the estimates was rarely indicated [in 13/84 (15%) logrank and 16/47 (34%) multivariate results]. The procedure for categorisation of continuous variables in logrank analyses was explained in only 8/49 (16%) papers. The quality of graphs was felt to be poor in 43/117 (37%) papers which included at least one survival curve. To address some of the presentational inadequacies found in this review we include new suggested guidelines for the presentation of survival analyses in medical journals. These would complement the statistical guidelines recommended by several clinical oncology journals.
在过去10到15年中,生存分析在医学领域得到了广泛应用。然而,尚未有关于生存分析使用和呈现方式的发表综述。我们对1991年10月至12月在五本临床肿瘤学期刊上发表的研究论文进行了系统综述。共审查了132篇论文。我们考察了研究设计、数据处理、结果分析和呈现的几个方面。我们发现,几乎一半的论文没有给出随访时间的任何总结;62%的论文中至少有一个终点未明确界定;对数秩检验和多变量分析在多数情况下报告时通常仅给出P值[分别为63/84(75%)和22/47(47%)]。此外,尽管许多研究规模较小,但估计值的不确定性很少被指出[对数秩检验结果中为13/84(15%),多变量分析结果中为16/47(34%)]。对数秩检验中连续变量分类程序仅在8/49(16%)的论文中有解释。在包含至少一条生存曲线的117篇论文中,43/117(37%)的论文图表质量被认为较差。为解决本综述中发现的一些呈现不足问题,我们纳入了医学期刊中生存分析呈现的新建议指南。这些指南将补充几本临床肿瘤学期刊推荐的统计指南。