Breyer F
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik, Universität Konstanz.
Zentralbl Chir. 1995;120(7):496-501.
The drastic increase in the proportion of the elderly in the Germany population in the coming 30 to 40 years and the rapid technological progress in medicine form a vast potential for a rise of health care expenditures as a fraction of gross national product. Three possible strategies to cope with this development are discussed. It is shown that the predominant strategy of stabilizing the rate of contribution to the sickness funds will soon lead to a sharp rationing even of life-prolonging medical services. As an alternative, a strategy of "freedom of choice" is presented.
在未来30到40年里，德国人口中老年人比例的急剧上升以及医学技术的快速进步，使得医疗保健支出占国民生产总值的比例有大幅上升的巨大潜力。文中讨论了应对这一发展趋势的三种可能策略。结果表明，稳定疾病基金缴费率的主要策略很快将导致甚至对延长生命的医疗服务进行大幅配给。作为一种替代方案，提出了一种“选择自由”的策略。
