Simulation of micropopulations in epidemiology: tutorial 2. Analytic forms of event probabilities. A series of tutorials illustrated by coronary heart disease models.

This is the second in a series of tutorials concerning the simulation of micropopulation models to support epidemiological research. The series emphasizes techniques that are included in studies at the National Micropopulation Simulation Resource at the University of Minnesota. For pedagogic purposes, applications to coronary heart disease models are used to illustrate the principles and methodologies employed. All of the models presented are implemented using available software. Both interpretation of the results of survey and surveillance data, and the simulation for predictive purposes of micropopulation models, depend upon the form chosen to represent the probability of the occurrence of an event associated with coronary heart disease. Four different forms are discussed; each can be used to represent the probability of transfer from the healthy state to one of the disease states or, in other words, the probability of occurrence of an event of interest. These four forms are by no means all-inclusive; rather they are ones that are convenient to use with micropopulation simulation models and that exhibit a variety of the different possibilities.