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用蒙特卡罗技术模拟的病毒流行模型的参数敏感性。I. 发病攻击率。

Parameter sensitivity of a model of viral epidemics simulated with Monte Carlo techniques. I. Illness attack rates.

作者信息

Ma J Z, Ackerman E, Yang J J

机构信息

University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.

出版信息

Int J Biomed Comput. 1993 May;32(3-4):237-53. doi: 10.1016/0020-7101(93)90017-z.

DOI:10.1016/0020-7101(93)90017-z
PMID:8514439
Abstract

This is the first of a series of papers concerning sensitivity analyses of stochastic micropopulation models. A model of epidemic spread of viral infection is used in this series to illustrate the principles and performance of the sensitivity analysis system. For these studies the analysis system now known as SENSEN was redesigned and extended to use the principles and modules of the SUMMERS simulation shell. The latter was used in the implementation of the epidemic model as well as a number of others. The SENSEN system can be used with any of these. The advantages of sensitivity analysis for stochastic micropopulation models are discussed. Its general form and operation are illustrated by a comparison of illness attack rates with infection attack rates.

摘要

这是关于随机微种群模型敏感性分析系列论文中的第一篇。本系列使用了一个病毒感染的流行病传播模型来说明敏感性分析系统的原理和性能。对于这些研究,现在称为SENSEN的分析系统被重新设计并扩展,以使用SUMMERS模拟外壳的原理和模块。后者被用于流行病模型以及其他一些模型的实现。SENSEN系统可以与这些模型中的任何一个一起使用。讨论了随机微种群模型敏感性分析的优点。通过比较疾病发病率和感染发病率来说明其一般形式和操作。

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