Rodríguez Artalejo F, Hernández Vecino R, Graciani A, Banegas J R, del Rey Calero J
Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.
Gac Sanit. 1994 Nov-Dec;8(45):272-9. doi: 10.1016/s0213-9111(94)71203-6.
Because the causal relationship between tobacco smoking and lung cancer has been clearly established, we have set out to measure its magnitude among the Spanish population in the time period 1940-1988 using observational methods. To do so, we have carried a time series study of ecological data. Information on lung cancer mortality, tobacco smoking and other potential predictors of lung cancer has been elaborated from official statistics. Data analysis has been performed by graphical methods and multiple linear regression techniques. Lung cancer mortality, tobacco smoking, total lipid intake and the Spanish wealth, as measured by national per caput income and gross domestic product, have increased very importantly over the study period. After controlling for the effect of lipids and alcohol intake, for every gram/per caput/day of increase in tobacco smoking in the period 1940-1988, there has been a 19% increase in lung cancer mortality with a 15 year lag. We conclude that tobacco smoking has fueled the lung cancer epidemic in Spain during the study period. This finding provides additional arguments for the implementation of tobacco control programmes in our country.
由于吸烟与肺癌之间的因果关系已得到明确证实,我们着手采用观察性方法来衡量1940年至1988年期间西班牙人群中这种关联的程度。为此,我们开展了一项生态数据的时间序列研究。肺癌死亡率、吸烟情况以及肺癌的其他潜在预测因素的信息均来自官方统计数据。数据分析采用了图形法和多元线性回归技术。在研究期间,肺癌死亡率、吸烟率、总脂质摄入量以及以人均国民收入和国内生产总值衡量的西班牙财富水平均有显著增长。在控制了脂质和酒精摄入量的影响后,1940年至1988年期间,吸烟量每增加每人均每天1克,肺癌死亡率在滞后15年后会增加19%。我们得出结论,在研究期间,吸烟助长了西班牙的肺癌流行。这一发现为我国实施控烟计划提供了更多依据。