López-Abente G, Pollán M, Jiménez M
National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
Cancer Causes Control. 1993 Nov;4(6):539-45. doi: 10.1007/BF00052429.
Age- and period-specific mortality rates for esophageal, laryngeal, lung, and bladder cancers in Spanish women from 1952 to 1986 were analyzed using an age-period-cohort model for each location. The four sites exhibit a similar pattern, characterized by a decline in mortality (cohort effect) in post-1900 generations. In the case of cancers of the esophagus and larynx, the model and curvature analysis show a slight rise in mortality in post-1932 generations. In cancers of the esophagus and lung, the period effect parallels the trend traced by the cohort effect. Prevalence estimates of smoking among women in Spain would seem to suggest that the degree of exposure in cohorts studied has been very low. The study indicates that smoking in Spanish women is relatively frequent only in recent generations and that this exposure has not produced, as yet, relevant variations in time trends. Special attention should be paid to the well known synergistic effect of smoking and alcohol consumption, which might already have determined changes in esophageal and laryngeal mortality.
使用年龄-时期-队列模型对1952年至1986年西班牙女性食管癌、喉癌、肺癌和膀胱癌的年龄别及时期别死亡率进行了分析。这四个部位呈现出相似的模式，其特征是1900年后出生的人群死亡率下降（队列效应）。在食管癌和喉癌病例中，模型和曲率分析显示1932年后出生的人群死亡率略有上升。在食管癌和肺癌中，时期效应与队列效应所追踪的趋势平行。西班牙女性吸烟率的估计似乎表明，所研究队列中的暴露程度非常低。该研究表明，西班牙女性吸烟仅在最近几代人中相对频繁，而且这种暴露尚未在时间趋势上产生相关变化。应特别关注吸烟与饮酒众所周知的协同效应，这可能已经导致了食管癌和喉癌死亡率的变化。
