Martín-Sánchez Juan Carlos, Bilal Usama, Clèries Ramon, Lidón-Moyano Cristina, Fu Marcela, González-de Paz Luís, Franco Manuel, Fernandez Esteve, Martínez-Sánchez Jose M
Group of Evaluation of Health Determinants and Health Policies, Universitat Internacional de Catalunya, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Spain.
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Surgery, Medical and Social Sciences, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2017 Aug;49:19-23. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2017.04.012. Epub 2017 May 18.
The objective of this study is to estimate the gap between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality and provide predictions of lung cancer mortality based on previous smoking prevalence.
We used data from the Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006 and 2011) to obtain information about tobacco use and data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute to obtain cancer mortality rates from 1980 to 2013. We calculated the cross-correlation among the historical series of smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate (LCMR) to estimate the most likely time gap between both series. We also predicted the magnitude and timing of the LCMR peak.
All cross-correlations were statistically significant and positive (all above 0.8). For men, the most likely gap ranges from 20 to 34 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 3.2 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 29 years earlier. The highest rate for men was observed in 1995 (55.6 deaths). For women, the most likely gap ranges from 10 to 37 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 0.28 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 32 years earlier. The maximum rate is expected to occur in 2026 (10.3 deaths).
The time series of prevalence of tobacco smoking explains the mortality from lung cancer with a distance (or gap) of around 30 years. According to the lagged smoking prevalence, the lung cancer mortality among men is declining while in women continues to rise (maximum expected in 2026).
本研究的目的是估计吸烟流行率与肺癌死亡率之间的差距，并根据以往的吸烟流行率预测肺癌死亡率。
我们使用了西班牙国家健康调查（2003年、2006年和2011年）的数据来获取烟草使用信息，并使用西班牙国家统计局的数据来获取1980年至2013年的癌症死亡率。我们计算了吸烟流行率历史序列与肺癌死亡率（LCMR）之间的交叉相关性，以估计这两个序列之间最可能的时间间隔。我们还预测了LCMR峰值的大小和时间。
所有交叉相关性均具有统计学意义且为正（均高于0.8）。对于男性，最可能的间隔为20至34年。29年前吸烟流行率每增加1个单位，年龄调整后的LCMR每10万人增加3.2例死亡。男性的最高死亡率出现在1995年（55.6例死亡）。对于女性，最可能的间隔为10至37年。32年前吸烟流行率每增加1个单位，年龄调整后的LCMR每10万人增加0.28例死亡。预计最高死亡率将在2026年出现（10.3例死亡）。
吸烟流行率的时间序列以大约30年的间隔解释了肺癌死亡率。根据滞后的吸烟流行率，男性肺癌死亡率在下降，而女性肺癌死亡率继续上升（预计2026年达到最高）。
