Temkin N R, Holubkov R, Machamer J E, Winn H R, Dikmen S S
Department of Neurological Surgery, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
J Neurosurg. 1995 May;82(5):764-71. doi: 10.3171/jns.1995.82.5.0764.
A cohort of 514 hospitalized head-injury survivors was identified based on their injury and 448 (87%) of them were followed for 1 year. Comprehensive neurobehavioral testing was performed 1 month and 1 year after injury. The authors developed predictions of six neuropsychological and two psychosocial outcomes 1 year after head injury. Prediction trees are presented for verbal IQ, Halstead's Impairment Index, and work status at 1 year. Early predictors of neurobehavioral outcome in survivors are similar to previously reported predictors of mortality. Extent (both depth and length) of coma and age are the medical and demographic variables most predictive of late outcome. Adding 1-month scores substantially improves prediction of neuropsychological variables. The classification and regression tree is a useful technique for predicting long-term outcome in patients with head injury. The trees are simple enough to be used in a clinical setting and, especially with 1-month scores, predictions are accurate enough for clinical utility.
根据损伤情况确定了一组514名住院的头部损伤幸存者，其中448人（87%）接受了为期1年的随访。在受伤后1个月和1年进行了全面的神经行为测试。作者对头部损伤1年后的六种神经心理学和两种社会心理结果进行了预测。给出了1年后言语智商、霍尔斯特德损伤指数和工作状态的预测树。幸存者神经行为结果的早期预测因素与先前报道的死亡率预测因素相似。昏迷的程度（深度和持续时间）和年龄是最能预测后期结果的医学和人口统计学变量。加入1个月时的得分可显著改善对神经心理学变量的预测。分类与回归树是预测头部损伤患者长期结果的一种有用技术。这些树足够简单，可用于临床环境，特别是结合1个月时的得分，预测准确性足以用于临床。
