Castilla Catalán J, Gutiérrez Rodríguez A, Sendra Gutiérrez J M, García Puente E
Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid.
Rev Sanid Hig Publica (Madr). 1994 Jan-Feb;68(1):179-85.
To obtain corrected estimates of the cumulative incidence and mortality, as well as prevalence of AIDS in Spain on June 1992.
The number of cases in the National Register of AIDS by December 1992 was adjusted for reporting delays to estimate the cumulative incidence by June 1992. The prevalence and mortality in this date were obtained using this figure and the probabilities of survival after diagnosis from the AIDS Register of Madrid. This methodology was used for Spain as all, and for each Autonomous Community.
The estimated cumulative incidence of AIDS in Spain by June 1992 was 16,486 cases, 13.4% greater than that reported by the same date. The prevalent cases were 6,351 (95% CI, 5,996-6,708) and the remaining 10,135 (61.5%) would have died. This number of deaths is 69.6% greater than the reported figure. There were considerable differences among Autonomous Communities. Some of them exhibited rates more than six times greater than others.
The adjusted estimations provide a view of the actual situation more accurate than the raw figures from the register. These great differences should be taken into account for appropriate allocation of health care resources.
为获得1992年6月时西班牙艾滋病累计发病率、死亡率以及患病率的校正估计值。
对1992年12月国家艾滋病登记册中的病例数进行报告延迟调整，以估计1992年6月的累计发病率。利用这一数字以及马德里艾滋病登记册中诊断后的生存概率，得出该日期的患病率和死亡率。此方法适用于整个西班牙以及各个自治区。
1992年6月西班牙艾滋病估计累计发病率为16486例，比同日报告的数字高13.4%。现患病例为6351例（95%可信区间，5996 - 6708），其余10135例（61.5%）将会死亡。死亡人数比报告数字高69.6%。各自治区之间存在相当大的差异。其中一些地区的发病率比其他地区高出六倍多。
校正后的估计值比登记册中的原始数据更能准确反映实际情况。在合理分配卫生保健资源时应考虑到这些巨大差异。
