Rodríguez Suárez V, Alvarez Sánchez G, Díaz Ruisánchez E, García Tardón A
Area de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Departamento de Medicina, Universidad de Oviedo.
Rev Sanid Hig Publica (Madr). 1993 Nov-Dec;67(6):465-74.
The Trend of lung cancer mortality rates in Asturias during 14 years is studied in order to know whether it shows the same change pattern described for other countries.
With this purpose, a graphic study of adjusted and age specific rates, including and analysis of birth cohorts, is carried out, and the change average percentage per year and the sex ratio are calculated.
In men, the continuous increase of mortality stands out (change average percentage per year of age adjusted rates of 4.83%) with the only exception of the age group of 45-54 years, which had a variation per year of 1.90%, whereas in women, an overall decrease (-1.18 %) was observed, with the exception of women older than 74 years, who showed an increase of 1.73% per year. In men, the cohorts analysis showed on increasing cohort effect in all generations and a decreasing effect in some women.
Lung cancer will probably go on increasing in Asturias in the next years, among men, whereas in women, it seems that a generalized decrease has been initiated, mainly in the youngest ones and the, increase, observed in other countries in previous years, is not evident. Additional studies, focused on the reasons for these trends, will be necessary and basically the following up of the evolution in men of 45-54 years, whose incipient decrease may indicate a change of trend, which facilitates hypothesis generation and verification.
研究阿斯图里亚斯地区14年间肺癌死亡率趋势，以了解其是否呈现与其他国家相同的变化模式。
为此，对调整后的年龄别死亡率进行了图表研究，包括出生队列分析，并计算了每年的平均变化百分比和性别比。
男性死亡率持续上升（年龄调整率每年平均变化百分比为4.83%），唯一例外的是45 - 54岁年龄组，其年变化率为1.90%；而女性总体呈下降趋势（-1.18%），74岁以上女性除外，她们每年上升1.73%。男性的队列分析显示所有代际的队列效应都在增加，而部分女性的队列效应在下降。
未来几年，阿斯图里亚斯地区男性肺癌发病率可能会持续上升，而女性似乎已开始普遍下降，主要是最年轻的女性，且往年在其他国家观察到的上升趋势并不明显。有必要针对这些趋势的原因开展更多研究，主要是对45 - 54岁男性的病情发展进行跟踪，其初期下降可能预示着趋势变化，这有助于提出假设并进行验证。
